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There has been a solid increase in vinyl records sales, year on year, since 2007. So, the “vinyl resurgence” has been going on for a decade. Every week, during that period, I have come across an article in a newspaper, magazine or on-line about how vinyl is saving the music industry. This is nonsense. The vinyl resurgence will plateau and then fade out, gradually. To understand this, you need to know just who buys vinyl records.

Vinyl record buyers (mostly men) fall into the following categories: record collectors, audiophiles, physical music enthusiasts, music “fans”, middle age nostalgia hunters and hipsters.

Record collectors are serious people. They are of close to no value to the music industry because they are principally interested in historic recordings – records that hold significant value – such as mint early pressings of the Beatles or Stones. They purchase in secondary markets from one another. While record collectors might bother with occasional limited edition box sets or record store day exclusives, they have close to no interest in new music – the motor of the industry.

Music enthusiasts (myself included) like physical products and typically have large collections of records, tapes and CDs. They are major players in the vinyl resurgence as, typically, they spend a lot of money at once for records – old and new. However, after 10 years, presumably, the enthusiast has already purchased most of the historic recordings that they would have wished for (including rare copies on discogs or ebay) and so are limited to new releases (every year the quality of new popular music declines) and gimmicks – such as box sets, re-issues etc. Sooner or later enthusiasts will run out of product to buy and, more importantly, space to store their records (which was why we all liked CDs and MP3s in the first place. Also, they are getting old……

Music “fans” are individuals who love specific bands/artists and wish to have memorabilia by them. If you love Ed Sheeran or Queens of the Stone Age, sure – that vinyl record that will never be played is a nice item – but these folks are not long term vinyl buyers. In fact, the industry’s failure to invest in anything but bubblegum pop for the last 15 years has resulted in a dearth of bands for teenagers and young adults to follow and become passionate about. Who will be filling arenas in 10 years time – 80+ year old Rolling Stones and U2?

Nostalgia hunters are typically middle aged people who got rid of their records 30 years ago and bought CDs, and then came back and bought the same records again. This appears to me to be the major motor of the vinyl resurgence (see below) – and it will not last. There is only so many copies of Sgt Pepper and the Dark Side of the Moon that you can own, really. Nostalgia hunters are only interested in buying records that they liked when they were 13 or so – not what is being released now (and frankly, given the state of retromania – who can blame them?). What is particularly frightening is the prospect of the current group of teens and young adults when they reach nostalgia age – there are so few bands and so few great records out there – what will they buy? 1990s era reissues are great – and will continue to sell – but 2005 to 2017 – not great music years.

Hipsters – they move on to the next cool thing.

Below is a list of the top 20 selling vinyl albums in the UK in 2017. I have highlighted in red the original 2017 releases – literally only 1 – Rag’n bone Man is a “new artist”. It looks like Oasis fans are holding the whole thing together.

Below is a list of the top selling vinyl albums in the US in 2017. What is frightening here is the fact that the largest selling vinyl album of 2017 was released 50 years ago. Of course, Sam Smith, Taylor Swift, Kendrick Lamar, Chris Stapleton and Eminem are not listed here – which proves my point. I would like someone to explain to me the (frankly) unbelievable popularity of “Back to Black” by Amy Winehouse – a fine album to be sure – on CD – it is almost certainly the WORST modern vinyl pressing that I own. Moreover, despite nearly all of the recordings below originating from the analogue era – each one of these records was digitally sourced (i.e. unlikely to be better than CD). The Guardians of the Galaxy soundtrack was great fun – but really – a Spotify playlist on vinyl?

~ by Pat Neligan on January 11, 2018.

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